iPad 3’s likely release date
John Gruber on the HP TouchPad ‘summer’ release:
Summer feels like a long time away. If my theory is right, they’re not only going to be months behind the iPad 2, but if they slip until late summer, they might bump up against the release of the iPad 3.
I’m unsure what Gruber means here, but TechRadar’s assuming he’s talking about the iPad 3 showing up in September. There’s some logic in this from a technology standpoint, in that Retina displays might be ready for the device by that point, but I don’t think Apple’s going to start offering iPad upgrades every six months. Doing so would wreck a chunk of sales, massively upping hold-outs. Also, given that international releases of Apple iOS kit are often delayed for three or more months, it’d be crazy to have the US gearing up for iPad X when some countries only just got iPad X-1.
I suspect Apple will stick to its annual refresh for this and its other major hardware products. The reliability and regularity is beneficial from a sales, marketing and manufacturing standpoint. To that end, I’m thinking the iPad 2 will show up in the USA a year after the iPad (i.e. April) and then elsewhere over the summer, and the iPad 3 to show up in April 2012. (Alternatively, perhaps the upcoming iPad might not be considered a ‘major’ revision and won’t be branded iPad 2, but even if the only big change is a FaceTime camera, that’ll cause enough of a splash in the press.)
UPDATE: Gruber follows up by saying the transition would make sense, with an iPad announcement replacing the iTunes/iPod one, which he says is “old news”.
The main reason to changing the release date to September is so that the iPad can ride the Holiday wave like the iPods currently do. It will still be on a year refresh cycle. Just in September. As it is, some consumers wait for the refresh in April to buy their iPad instead of receiving it as a gift for Christmas. That’s what I’m doing.
It actually makes more sense to renew in April, then. iPads ride the holiday wave anyway, but an April refresh provides a booster for sales. If there’s a refresh in September (which, judging by Apple, would make for an awkward December refresh in the UK and elsewhere, with low supplies and lots of frustrated customers), that April spike won’t happen.
You’re obviously forgetting the February spike, when everyone is buying iPods and iPads as the “perfect Valentine” gift. Or for Easter. Or for Mother/Father’s Day.
I guess it’s too obvious to say that iPad 3 will be launched when Apple thinks it’s ready, and not a moment before…
Those holidays aren’t so big for gift-buying, though—a new product is a much bigger driver. Also, no, Apple won’t release ad-hoc, because it’s settled into very strict annual patterns. Gruber might be right in that Apple will move the date, but if it does, that’ll be ‘iPad day’ every year for the foreseeable.