I’m pretty sure some analysts spend their days lobbing darts at a dartboard and then applying whatever number they hit to the current piece of analysis, especially when it comes to marketshare. However, it takes a truly special company to consider outlandish reports conservative. And so it goes with Bloomberg’s report:

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) said its Windows Phone operating system may capture more than 20 percent of the smartphone market over the next two to three years with the help of hardware manufacturers and increased marketing efforts.

So, here we have an analyst firm—Gartner—who thinks Android will lead forever in smartphones, growing from a 23 to 49 per cent share, and that iOS will struggle onwards, growing its share from 16 to 17 per cent. Windows Phone? Naturally, that will skyrocket from 4.2 per cent to 19.5 per cent, blazing past iOS in the process. And yet Microsoft thinks that’s conservative. Presumably by 2020, every single smartphone will run Windows Phone and will directly jack your brain into Steve Ballmer’s PC.

Perhaps I shouldn’t be too quick to judge. People thought Apple didn’t have a chance, and it took a fair chunk of the market. But then Apple did that by innovating and creating a new type of personal computer/smartphone hybrid that took Apple users and everyone else by storm. I fail to see how Microsoft will have such meteoric marketshare rise, even with its Nokia tie-up, when most people either remain infatuated with the iPhone or happy with the cheaper/more expandable Android alternatives. Still, maybe Microsoft knows something I don’t—perhaps Tim Cook in his new CEO role is hastily remaking all iPhone 5 cases out of fish scales.