It’s something of a running joke in the tech press how often highly paid and influential analysts update their predictions for iPad sales. TechCrunch’s article by Erick Schonfeld from a couple of days back neatly sums things up:

The iPad sold three times as much as the average tech blogger predictions, and five times as much as the average Wall Street analyst prediction. Think about that the next time you see a prediction for anything in tech. The newer it is, the less anybody knows.

To be fair, Brian Marshall did OK guessing at seven million, but just 1.1 million, Doug Reid of Thomas Weisel and Yair Reiner of Oppenheimer? Really? Even if the iPad hadn’t become a breakout hit and shaken up the industry, it would have sold more than that number to Apple fans alone.

A year ago: Acer dismisses a tablet (PCWorld), arguing that its netbooks and notebooks won’t be affected by the iPad.

Today: Acer is to start selling tablets by summer (Computerworld), and Taiwan sales manager Lu Bing-hsian says:

They are aimed at phasing out netbooks. That’s the direction of the market.

Interesting times in mobile gaming. Although plenty of people continue to dismiss iOS and similar devices going forward, the industry is gradually shifting. The big news today is on MVC, where Capcom Interactive’s president and COO Midori Yuasa had this to say:

The casual gamer that used to play on the PC and the hardcore gamer that used to play on a dedicated gaming portable now plays on their smartphone.

The iPhone and larger smartphone markets are extremely important to Capcom as, like no device before, smartphones have the potential to become a universal game platform.

This is the fight Nintendo’s now in with the 3DS, and it’s very different to battling just another gaming console.

Apple’s media advisory just went out, with Steve Jobs telling Apple staff that he’s taking another “medical leave of absence” so he can focus on his health. Today, there’s no US stockmarket trading. Tomorrow, AAPL will fall off a cliff and people go OH MY GOD NO STEVE JOBS APPLE IS DOOMED, ignoring the facts that:

• Apple didn’t keel over last time Jobs took months off to deal with health problems;
• Apple has very capable people to take over the general running of the company (and, arguably, to offer both innovation and vision);
• Apple essentially is Steve Jobs now.

That last point bears explanation. I’m not saying Apple is Steve Jobs in the sense that if he is out of the picture, Apple ceases to function. I’m saying Apple is Steve Jobs in the sense that his way of thinking is now so deeply infused into the company that the company can continue to ‘be Steve’ even when he’s not there.

Hopefully, Jobs is merely taking a leave of absence to concentrate on getting fitter (day-to-day running of Apple is probably quite stressful and not ideal for long-term recuperation from a major operation) and there’s no recurrence of the cancer he had. Hopefully, he can and will get well soon. Hopefully, the tech press and traders won’t go batshit monkey ballistic over this news, spewing disinformation and bullshit everywhere. Sadly, I think the last of those is a very long shot indeed.

UPDATE: BBC News reports:

Apple shares traded in Frankfurt are down 7% on the news.

Don’t expect Apple to catch up with Exxon in 2011, then.

As reported on the internet, iOS 4.3 returns you to the home screen with a four finger pinch. But plenty of games and apps exist where you use more than three fingers to interact. There are light toys (like uzu), virtual musical instruments, and plenty of games (such as Eliss) where you could feasibly make that gesture and thereby quit the app. Maybe this won’t be the case, or perhaps Apple just doesn’t care. If the new gesture does impact on such apps, though, that’s a major blow to a touchscreen OS, especially on the iPad where multiplayer games are commonplace.

I asked for dev replies on Twitter and will publish them here, unless said devs see their words reprinted, hunt me down and force me under threat of being slapped silly to remove them.

Neil Inglis:

It’s worth noting that nothing’s set in stone. Apple’s developer release notes for the iOS 4.3 beta specifically state that they’re looking for feedback on how this affects people’s applications. If enough people say it’s a problem, they’ll remove it or scale it back.

Personally I love the concept but I think it breaks enough applications that they’ll be forced to remove it. It’s not just that some apps intentionally use these gestures, I think users are far too likely to accidentally make them.

The conclusion there is the thing I’m most concerned about. I can see people making such a gesture by mistake. Good that Apple’s looking for feedback though.

Matt Gemmell:

A pinch is a specific gesture, remember; it’s not just any old four-finger input. Apple hasn’t grabbed them all.

And in response to my query about the specifics of that gesture:

A specific, mathematically-defined gesture which takes into account both position & velocity. It’s not just 4 fingers moving.

Stephen Darlington:

Apple are specifically asking for feedback on the gestures so I don’t think you can file it under ‘don’t care’. My guess is that they’ll add an option for developers to switch the gestures off, much as you can turn off the task switching.

Patrick Scheips:

The apps don’t quit, they just ‘freeze’ if you use these four or five fingers gestures. But yes, these gestures even work in those apps. I’ve tested that in uzu.