Rumours say iPad HD will launch in 2011. I disagree
Joshua Topolsky for This is my next…:
Our sources are saying that not only will there be a newly designed iPhone coming in the fall, but there is going to be a new entry into the iPad family as well. As hard as it might be to believe, the new tablet is said to sport a double resolution screen (2048 x 1536), and will be dubbed the “iPad HD.” The idea behind the product is apparently that it will be a “pro” device aimed at a higher end market — folks who work in video and photo production possibly — and will be introduced alongside something like an iPad version of Final Cut or Aperture. This product is specifically said to not be the iPad 3, rather a complimentary piece of the iPad 2 line. Think MacBook and MacBook Pro.
Sounds like bullshit to me. I’ll be amazed if the iPad doesn’t follow one of the following two patterns:
- A full-line ‘upgrade’ to a 2048-by-1536 display.
- An iPhone-style system, with the lowest-end model being a version of the previous tablet, but the rest of the line being the newest spec.
The alternative—having an iPad HD in a niche and high-end position—would be a dangerous move, as would signifying it’s some kind of ‘pro’ device. Right now, all iPads are relatively equal. The point is that they are everything, from a children’s colouring book to a tool for professional writers and artists. By making a single high-end iPad HD device, Apple would immediately position the rest of the entire iPad line as something not for professionals, and it would also further fragment the line. You’d also have a situation where it wouldn’t be obvious to most developers when and how to update their apps to take advantage of the new display.
My thinking: when it’s financially viable to do so (or when Apple’s hand is forced by a competitor), we’ll see the entire iPad line shift to 2048 x 1536. At the same time, the internals will get a pretty significant boost (RAM, chip speed) that Apple will entirely avoid talking about, because the display and what you can do with the device is all that’s really important.
The thisismynext guys (when they were at Engadget) predicted that the recently-released iPad 2 would have a Retina Display. They were wrong about the timing, so maybe they’re wrong again.
Your concern about fragmenting the iPad line is interesting. But why does the Macbook line thrive with just this sort of fragmentation? What do you see as the difference? Also, do you think developer confusion would really be a problem? The transition from the old iPhone’s resolution up to the Retina Display has gone fairly smoothly, hasn’t it?
Finally, not to put you on the spot, but if you were forced to identify a release date for a high-res iPad, what would you say?
“But why does the Macbook line thrive with just this sort of fragmentation?”
Because it’s a computer, and we’re used to this kind of fragmentation. Also, apps are designed to be used with multiple screen sizes, from MacBook Airs through to iMacs. With the iPad, there’s been a single form factor and a single resolution, and apps are strictly designed for that (or, in some cases, the iPhone’s Retina display, with a black border). In doubling up the size of the display for a niche item only, Apple would be making a big gamble on developers wanting to put in the extra work to make a better experience for a minority of users (since, like on the iPhone 4, older apps would likely look like crap); I suspect some would, but many wouldn’t bother. This could result in an iPad HD having a few apps of its own that don’t work on other iPads and a majority of apps looking like blurry crap. If the entire line’s moved to the higher-res display, you still get similar issues, but the dev path is much, much clearer.
As for when we’ll see the iPad with a Retina display, I still think March(ish) next year is likely.
Could we see a “Retina Display” iPad this year? No. Will we see one next year? Possible, but unlikely.
My reasons? The sheer amount of horse power required to run at the true Retina Display resolution. You have to remember that while it’s certainly possible to run at that resolution, it doesn’t leave a whole lot of room left for other apps resource-wise. It takes a significant amount of horsepower to run that high of a resolution on any device.
I would put forward that any attempt to run at a higher resolution would require a GPU from either nVidia or ATI.
“But my laptop with integrated graphics can run at that reolution.”
Sure, but please list all the games you can play on it?
Answer: Flash games are about it.
Future iPad devices will eventually get there, but this year or next year? I’m not holding my breath.