Why Apple TV television show rentals should be massive, but never will be

Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes, in September (CNet):

How can you justify renting your first-run TV shows individually for 99 cents an episode? [This would] jeopardize the sale of the same shows as a series to branded networks that pay hundreds of millions of dollars and make those shows available to loyal viewers for free.

Warner, also in September (LA times):

“We just don’t think the value proposition is a good one for us,” [Chairman Barry] Meyer told analyst Jessica Reif  in an interview at the conference. He said in his view he’d rather license whole seasons of shows rather than “open up a rental business in television at a low price.”

I’ve now been running an Apple TV since the start of 2011, and here’s what I’ve learned from the experience:

  • 99 cents for a 40-minute show isn’t fantastic value, but it is good enough as an impulse purchase, and stops me from bothering to find shows via ‘alternate’ means. It’s also a cheap and usable enough system to ‘convert’ me from using ‘alternate’ means to the semi-legal one (for me) of Apple TV (see below for more on that).
  • 99 cents is too much for old shows that aren’t great and also for shows that are 20 minutes in length. For those, I tend to grab DVDs on sale from the likes of Amazon; studio execs say they don’t want to harm DVD sales through digital, but the stuff I buy tends to be significantly cheaper than an Apple rental would be, because I wait for the sales.
  • The single-episode rental nature of Apple TV could be a boon for studios, since it enables you to ‘test’ shows you’ve not watched before. Our household’s $1.98 test of two episodes of Lie To Me (sadly now cancelled by idiots at Fox) resulted in all 48 episodes being rented. So the studio got a total of $47.52, minus Apple’s cut. We’d have never bought the DVDs.
  • There aren’t enough shows for rental on the Apple TV, meaning interest will soon dwindle.
  • I don’t want to buy most shows to rewatch them (most of our DVDs have been watched once only), and there’s no way in hell I’m paying £2.49 ($3.99) for a single TV episode in HD, nor even £1.89 ($3.02) for SD. £36.99 is terrible value for a season of a show that will soon end up on DVD for half of that.

Of course, execs would also argue that, despite me paying for TV content, I’m still breaking the law, because I’m in the UK and using a US iTunes account to rent TV shows. Frankly, I’m not going to cry myself to sleep over that—TV being locked to regions is an anachronism that makes no sense whatsoever today (and the same goes for movies), and the studios are getting money they otherwise wouldn’t have gotten.

I think it’s a great pity that Apple TV seems to be on a road to nowhere. Although new movies regularly appear, the top TV rentals have barely changed in six months, bar new content from the BBC showing up on a regular basis (which makes no odds to me, being British, but I’m sure Americans are happy about this, so: well done, BBC). And it’s bizarre that studio execs witter on about Apple TV ‘devaluing’ content when that same content is available in the US in unlimited form for under $10 per month from Netflix.

Give me the last season of House on Apple TV for rent. I’ll watch the lot and you’ll get money. Chuck, too. And probably a whole bunch of other shows. Alternatively, sit there stamping your little feet, covering your ears, shutting your eyes and pretending it’s still 1999. That’s all fine. Bitch and moan about how Apple somehow ‘destroyed’ the music industry (by convincing a bunch of people to pay for digital) and how you don’t want the same to happen to the world of TV. I’ll keep pretending it’s 1999, too, by waiting until the shows I want to watch are in the bargain bin (which happens increasingly quickly these days), and you’ll get less money—and it’s your own damn fault, you idiots.

May 18, 2011. Read more in: Apple, Opinions, Technology, Television

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Why iOS developers must resist Lodsys patent trolling

Previously on Patent Trolling America:

Indie developers get hit by threats from company that makes a living suing people over wide-ranging patents.

Lodsys goes wah wah wah on a blog, suggesting they are the victims here. I disagree (and, judging by the fact my article from yesterday rocketed to second place in Revert to Saved’s all-time most-read list, I’m not the only one).

Today, the guy who first revealed he’d been hit by Lodsys, James Thomson, said another wave of attacks is happening:

Sounds like there’s a second wave of FedEx parcels today – the Iconfactory just got one.

This one’s going to run and run unless someone fights and wins, or Apple smashes Lodsys in its stupid face with a lawyer-shaped punch.

Two points people have been making about Lodsys are worth countering.

1. They only want 0.575% of US income from IAP, so why all the whining?

The figure might not seem much, but what’s to stop Lodsys amending this later? Or for some other party to say it has a patent that IAP infringes and demand 1% or 2%? And then for another to do the same? Before you know it, half your income is paying patent trolls and Apple’s platform gradually becomes deserted by the developers who made it a success.

Also, importantly, this figure is apparently not included in the documents being sent out by Lodsys. It’s all very well to say “but we’re not asking for much” after you’ve already scared the shit out of a bunch of developers. (Most can now, of course, find the information online, but they shouldn’t have to, and the many developers who received the letter on Friday probably spent the weekend wondering how much Lodsys would damage their business.)

It’s also still unclear whether paying Lodsys would breach the terms developers sign with Apple, meaning IAP in itself would be possible until some kind of global resolution is made, such as Apple amending its terms accordingly. (And that would surely open the floodgates to infinite trolling idiots on money rafts.)

2. Lodsys says Apple is licensed, so it’s not going to fight, and it’s only fair the devs get permission to use the technology too.

First, Apple provides no alternative to IAP, so devs cannot avoid it unless they ditch any app with this capability. Secondly, I don’t for a second imagine Apple legal thought problems like this would ever occur, and that it’d roll out a system that would eventually incur extra costs for iOS developers. Development platforms are supposed to be utterly bulletproof-safe to develop for. You shouldn’t have to think “I wonder whether some scumbag will sue me for using IAP at some point”—this should all be covered; developers should be protected by the company that owns the platform or service.

Should Apple capitulate here, expect—again—a ton more threats of this kind to appear, resulting in developer income being chipped away piece by piece. Given Apple’s rather powerful legal team, I’ll be astonished if it sits back and does nothing whatsoever.

May 17, 2011. Read more in: Apple, News, Opinions, Technology

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Why Lenovo’s ultraslim ThinkPad X1 will beat Apple’s MacBook Air

World-leading PC manufacturer Lenovo has done it again, announcing the ultrathin ThinkPad X1, a hugely innovative laptop that looks like nothing you’ve ever seen before.

OK, so it might look a smidge like the MacBook Air, but here’s why Lenovo’s laptop will grind Apple’s into the dirt:

  • Nipple: Everyone likes a nipple, and this laptop still has one wedged into its keyboard. Apple seems to think that multitouch trackpads are the way forward, but the nipple will eventually win the day.
  • Stickers: The MacBook Air is extremely boring when you open it up—the entire thing’s just grey. Yawn. By contrast, the ThinkPad X1 has lots of exciting stickers on it; even better, these tell you what companies have supplied parts for your computer, enabling you to show off to your friend.
  • Heft: The ThinkPad X1 is about 50 per cent heavier than the MacBook Air, meaning it’s far more satisfying to carry. You really know you’ve spent money on something when it’s in a bag and tugging at your shoulder. (Even better, 1.7kg is only the starting weight—you can actually make it heavier. I’m hoping for a special edition with a brick glued to the lid.)
  • Battery: Lenovo reckons the battery should last up to five hours, compared to seven in the MacBook Air—a big benefit, because everyone works too much these days. The X1 makes sure you won’t, especially if your forget your charger.
  • Windows: It’s got Windows inside! Everyone loves Windows.
  • Poor screen contrast: Great reproduction of photos drops your productivity. By making on-screen graphics less exciting, you will do more work. Unless your battery runs out first, obv.
  • Black: Black is the new black, and the black shell doesn’t at all make the X1 look like it’s the result of a torrid affair between a MacBook Air and a clunky 1990s Windows laptop.
  • Specs: The X1 has more bullet-points than the MacBook Air, referring to extra ports and ‘stuff’ that is a surefire way to draw in typical users. They love lists of numbers.
  • Storage: The SSD will be optional, rather than standard and enforced across the line. Futuristic technology is scary.

Run for the hills, Apple! I think I’m not alone in saying that Lenovo’s got you beaten here, and that within four days at most of the X1 being on sale, you’ll be down to third in terms of market-cap, because Lenovo will blitz past even Exxon, leaving you in its wake.

May 17, 2011. Read more in: Apple, Humour, News, Opinions, Technology

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Twitter client Kiwi deep frozen due to Ryan Sarver

Ryan Sarver (head of Twitter’s Platform Group), in March:

Developers ask us if they should build client apps that mimic or reproduce the mainstream Twitter consumer client experience. The answer is no. We need to ensure users can interact with Twitter the same way everywhere.

Mac Twitter client Kiwi’s developer, today:

I’ve stopped working on Kiwi. […] It essential that the platform you’re working on is eager for your app, eager to help you get to market, and eager for you to reap your well earned rewards.

Perhaps Twitter has a great long-term goal that involves the strategic decision of “crap on the guys that made your platform popular”, but it’s a pity so many clients and devs are taking a hit. And from what I see from Twitter itself—across Mac, iPad and iPhone, the company itself is being quite hypocritical when it comes to Sarver’s comment:

We need to ensure users can interact with Twitter the same way everywhere.

Maybe Twitter should make sure its own apps have some semblance of uniformity, then.

May 16, 2011. Read more in: Apple, News, Opinions, Technology

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Lodsys responds to trolling accusations regarding iOS in-app payments

In a series of blog posts, Lodsys responds to the accusations it’s been trolling regarding in-app payments for iPad, iPhone and iPod touch apps, as reported on this site and elsewhere over the past few days. Some highlights:

There are lots of bills in life that it would be preferable to not pay if one didn’t have to.

“Pity us! We want feeding too!” (There are also lots of bills in life that aren’t in fact legal threats issued by patent trolls, whose entire business rests on buying vague patents and bullying other companies into paying them, under threat of legal doom.)

Lodsys is just trying to get value for assets that it owns, just like each and every company selling products or services is, trying to do business and make a profit.

Not exactly like other companies. The iOS devs in question have created something and are selling value. You’ve bought something that might be related to IAP and are taking a scattergun approach to developers, hoping to force money out of them for a mechanism that Apple owns and they merely utilise. It’d be wrong to use the word ‘extortion’, but we’re not a million miles away from that, are we?

Its odd that some of the companies that received notices had such a visceral reaction

Yes. You’d have expected “Pay up or we’ll sue you into oblivion—MWAHAHAHAHA!” to have received responses along the lines of: “Oops! Sorry, sir! Please have some money, sir! What else can we do for you, sir?”

Some of these companies have our favorite apps, for which we paid the asking price.

And which might not exist for much longer, because of you.

We realize you have to get paid for your work and so do we.

Your work being ‘sending threatening letters out of the blue, demanding payment for a system Apple makes available for its developers’. That is JUST LIKE IOS DEVELOPMENT!

In any event, name calling, threats and irrationality don’t help. In particular, the death threats are seriously uncool.

I don’t wish you dead, semi-anonymous blog poster; Lodsys, on the other hand…

Golden rule: do unto others as they would do to you.

Ah, so you want iOS devs to all sue you, using some spurious patent claim, perhaps over something unavoidable such as the fact you’re ‘hosting a website’ or ‘breathing air’? OK, got it.

Lodsys is specializing in selling rights efficiently in a manner that likely does not make sense for Intellectual Ventures to do. Lodsys is seeking an economic return to sell the lawfully acquired rights, providing work and income for people and doing all the same steps as any other tech company to solve a problem and to make money.

Lovely. So, presumably, that’s the reason why you waited to launch this nasty threat bomb on iOS, rather than, say, threatening Apple the second it made quite a big deal out of IAP? Phew! I NOW UNDERSTAND!

Q: Is Lodsys •shooting in the dark• hoping for a payout?

No, Lodsys is methodically selling its product (patent rights) in the most efficient means it can.

Efficiently suing random indie developers.

Ideally, we can sell as much as possible through direct sales, rather than having to use litigation. It’s less expensive and more efficient for both parties.

“We’d much rather you give us money directly in future, without us even having to ask.”

Q: What are you charging?

Surprisingly, no one has asked this question in the Internet dialog.

Surprisingly, everyone was more concerned about the indie devs who may have their entire businesses killed than asking how much money a patent troll was going to make. IMAGINE!

In the case of an Application doing an in-application upgrade (and only this scenario), Lodsys is seeking 0.575% of US revenue over for the period of the notice letter to the expiration of the patent, plus applicable past usage. So on an application that sells US$1m worth of sales in a year, the licensee would have an economic exposure of $5,750 per year.

It’s OK to sue the pants off of indie devs if only a small amount of their income is going to be affected, see?

Our goal is to popularize the technology, have it used by many people and to make relatively small amounts per licensee, but to have the large volume of licensees aggregate to be a worthwhile business.

“Our goal is to make money, hand over fist, for sending out letters.”

There is a misalignment in the market where the litigation costs greatly influence the incentives. At the low end, the cost of litigation exceeds the value of the license and this puts strong pressure on small vendors to take a license rather than litigate

“We can scare small devs into paying us, under threat of being sued.”

However, above a certain threshold, there is a perverse incentive for the larger market players to not pay (even if they should) and to force the rights holder into litigation since the higher expenses of litigation and the risk may knock out the need to pay. This cost of doing business often means that individual inventors cannot afford to attempt to license (or they don’t have the expertise), and so they sell to companies that specialize in rights licensing and which have the economic reserve to deal with the litigation costs and/or they partner with contingency law firms. Ironically, contingency law firms take a % that is in the range of what Apple and Amazon charge to retail digital goods.

From a fairness perspective, we have decided that Lodsys should attempt to license all users of the patent rights, on proportional terms, rather than let many ‘free riders’ not pay while only selected companies pay.

“We probably won’t bother suing big companies, though, because that would cost us money.”

Dan Abelow is an independent inventor who visualized/created metaphors, documented for the world to see (in exchange for exclusivity) and created value for doing so.

“Dan Abelow, like lots of people, managed to get the USPTO to give him a parent for something wonderfully generic, enabling us to cash in! KA-CHING!”

Many industries study the IP landscape prior to releasing a product or service and either design around or acquire necessary patent rights if they need them to do their solution.

“It’s all the fault of the developers, see, for not getting lawyers to check whether every aspect of iOS development didn’t have some patent troll hiding in the bushes, waiting to pounce.”

Historically, the tech industry did not clear patent rights in advance because the amount of time and effort to do so made no economic sense given the relative low cost to create software and the speed at which products were being released, so a norm has arisen where it’s build and ship now, and worry about clearing the patent rights later.

Yes, those nasty indie iOS devs. What really happened is they thought “screw the consequences” and just shipped their apps, knowing that poor little patent troll Lodsys (who they’d never heard of before) would be out of pocket for its insanely wide-ranging patent. SPOT THE LOGIC PROBLEM!

Q: I developed on Apple iOS (or other platform), why isn’t Apple (or other OS vendor) responsible, or taking care of this issue?

The scope of their current licenses does NOT enable them to provide ‘pixie dust’ to bless another (3rd party) business applications.

“We’re getting all angry now. WHEEL OUT THE PATRONISE-O-TRON!”

The value of the customer relationship is between the Application vendor of record and the paying customer, the OS (is acting as an enabler) and the retailers (are acting as a conduit to connect that value), and taking their % for that middleman role.

“Those guys saying Apple can deal with this on behalf of indie devs? Nuh-uh.”

One blogger suggested that an OS or device vendor or retailer could choose to contact Lodsys and purchase a license on behalf of its application ecosystem, but so far such discussions haven’t taken place.

“Apple doesn’t care about you.”

From Lodsys’ perspective, it is seeking to be paid value for rights it holds and which are being used by others. Economically, the best return is probably to license each Application vendor for a piece of value, rather than to include in a ‘buyout’ for an OS vendor.

“Also, we’re pretty scared of Apple, so we’d rather you indie guys just give us money and we can all forget that Apple even exists. Deal?”

Q: Why is Lodsys contacting Application publishers and website publishers rather than Operating system vendors, or device manufacturers?

The economic gains provided by the Lodsys inventions (increase in revenue through additional sales, or decrease in costs to service the customer) are being enjoyed by the business that provides the product or service that interacts with the user. Since Lodsys patent rights are of value to that overall solution, it is only fair to get paid by the party that is accountable for the entire solution and which captures the value (rather than a technology supplier or a retailer).

“Also, because Apple doesn’t allow you to do IAPs in any other way, WE WIN! WOO-HOO!”

As a comparative example, it is the owner of the hotel who is responsible for the overall service (value proposition) that guests pay for, not the owner of the land that the hotel may be leasing, not the travel agent that sold the reservation, not the manufacturer of tools such as hammers, nor the provider of materials such as nails or steel beams, which may be used in building the hotel; nor is it the outsourced linen washing service or the architect of the building who is responsible.

“We really like pointless, lengthy analogies. We hope they distract you and make us sound like ‘one of the guys’.”

As an extended metaphor

Yes, please extend it!

in the hotel example, no one would expect the architect to not be paid, or for the nails to come for free. They get paid some subset of the overall value, but they get paid for their contribution to the solution under an agreement they have with the hotel owner.

“Dear iOS devs: your room service bill is now ready: $HUGECHUNKOFYOUREARNINGS for ‘misc. patent troll charges’. HAVE A NICE DAY!”

May 16, 2011. Read more in: Apple, News, Opinions

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